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In trainingProbabilistic reasoning
ForecastGym
Train the rarest reasoning skill.
Superforecasters are made, not born — and the gap between an average forecaster and a top-2% one is mostly reasoning discipline. ForecastGym trains the moves: pick the right base rate, build the reference class, decompose, update on evidence, and resist the narrative pull. The Brier score keeps you honest. K2 grades the reasoning underneath.
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The setting
The desk — first coffee, first read of the wires.
Sample scenarios
- 01Will the central bank cut rates before the next CPI print
- 02Will a named startup raise at an up-round within 6 months
- 03Will a named bilateral talks announce a deliverable within 30 days
Graded on
Dim 01
Base-rate use
Dim 02
Reference-class fit
Dim 03
Decomposition
Dim 04
Updating discipline
Dim 05
Narrative resistance